The surprise about West Ham United’s position in the table is based more on what we saw of them last year and a lack of inspiring signings in the summer. However, anyone who’s watched them this season knows they are where they should be. With arguably the best midfield partnership in the league, the Hammers have been a tough match for every team in the league, including Manchester City over the weekend.
Some people have said City weren’t at their best but a number of games on this 20-game winning streak have only had a goal in it. I think it was just the two teams with the best record in 2021 coming up against each other and putting up a tough performance. Expected goals are an indicator of how good the chances both teams created were. One team had an XG of 0.80 and the other had 2.03, but surprisingly, City had the lower stat. This isn’t to say the result was wrong. When a team with the quality of the Citizens is on the pitch, they are going to take half chances and clear chances will be needed to score against them. What it does show, is the East London side are ready to start competing with the big teams. Before they start though, they need a bit more quality in one area of the pitch and some depth in others.
The defensive performance of West Ham deserves a lot of credit. City are a side that can attack and create chances from everywhere. The perception of them is that they’re a technically gifted side who can pass their way through the lines, which is true, but they can so more. The Manchester side attempt more crosses than any other side in the league and when they get the ball back, the first thing the City players do is look for a forward to play a long ball to. Something a lot of possession sides stubbornly refuse to do this season. In this game, it took Ruben Dias and John Stones the starting centre backs to get through the challengers to the big boys.
Depth here has been a big part of West Ham’s rise as this performance came without first choice centre half, Angelo Ogbonna. Craig Dawson has stepped up to be a leader at the back organising his younger partner Issa Diop and out of position Aaron Cresswell. At the end of the season his loan ends and he’ll be on his way back to Watford who deemed him surplus to requirements at the beginning of the season. Given Dawson is now in his 30’s I think United could pick him up for £5-£7 million and have him do a job for a couple more seasons while funds can be allocated to a position more in need.
Goalkeeper is another position to be looked at. Lukas Fabianski has been brilliant for West Ham and I do feel he could do a job for them next year. So, this isn’t a priority but this may be an opportunity to pick up Alphonse Areola. He’s had a good season and doesn’t seem to have a future at PSG. He’s valued at £11.7 million on Transfermarkt, which I feel will be a little low. I think a loan to buy deal for £15-£20 million would be a good option and could include the Polish shot stopper going the other way to end his career in style in the French capital. Delaying the fee a year will allow for funds to be allocated to more expensive positions immediately and PSG aren’t exactly struggling for money so could make the deal work for what is probably the most they could get for him.
Central midfield is strongest position in the side, but also is severely lacking in depth. If Tomas Soucek or Declan Rice aren’t available then the options dry up quickly. Mark Noble is first choice after the main two. He absolutely has the technical skill and defensive ability to play in this midfield, but he no longer has the legs which the big duo are near unrivalled for. A dream signing in this position I feel would ne Nico Barella from Inter. There’s no chance he’d be swapping the Serie A leaders for East London though. A realistic option I think would be Conor Gallagher who is on loan at West Bromwich Albion from Chelsea. The 21 year old likely won’t have a future at the Blues so a permanent move away to potentially a Europa League side would be a good move for him. He leads the West Brom side for tackles, is one of their key creators and has played multiple positions throughout the year. The young box to box midfielder would offer great coverage for Rice who will need more rest next season as he himself is relatively young and a key player for England who will play back to back summer tournaments. Gallagher is valued at £9 million and I think that is a fair price which will allow Chelsea who are going to be competing with other teams for big signings to add £10 million on to any deal they may otherwise have offered.
The big target will be a goal scorer. The Hammers have already been linked with a number of forwards this season. A quality finisher would make West Ham definite top four contenders is they focused on the next year. Watching the claret and blue side this season you see the number of good chances they have missed. With 15 goals a season striker, which a lot of premier league sides have this year, you could see this West Ham side being sat in 2nd in the league at the moment.
Two Championship options they’ve been linked with are Adam Armstrong and Ivan Toney. With 22 goal contributions in 31 games and 33 in 32 respectively they are their team’s top scorers. Both 24, you’d expect to get the same number of years out of them. The question is though, can they make the step up. You never know whether a Championship striker can make the step up. We’ve seen players scoring for fun in the 2nd tier but struggle in the top tier as well as strikers surprise us all and explode when they get on the big stage. Armstrong will be the cheaper of the two with Blackburn reportedly asking for £25 million so I’d expect £20 million or £17 million with a player going the other way on loan. Toney on the other hand will cost more. Brentford have a good record of recruiting good talent with Watkins being their previous seasons export and doing very well at Aston Villa. I think £30 million will be the lowest fee he’ll move for, especially if the Bees get promoted. Given that price, I think there are better options.
Fellow Premier League London sides, Arsenal and Chelsea have young strikers on West Ham’s radar, Eddie Nketia and Tammy Abraham. For the level of striker we need I don’t think Nketia will be good enough, he hasn’t had the experience which Abraham has had, or spent the last season leading a line like the Championship options. I have no doubt that Abraham would be a good signing and that it would be a good move for him. Tammy has proven himself as a Premier League level player and will be able to grow with the Hammers and potentially get a bigger move if grows faster. The issue comes with the price. I think Chelsea will likely ask for £35-£40 million for his signature, if they are willing to sell.
The most likely signing, and the one I think will be best, is Youssef En-Nesyri. West Ham reportedly bid for him in the January window and unsurprisingly it didn’t go through. Getting a starter mid-way through the season is notoriously difficult and near impossible for a fair price. The 23 year old is currently playing at the level West Ham should be next year and doing it well. His finishing has been better than that of Antonio. Antonio has 7 goals from 17 games in the league compared to En-Nesyri who has 13 in 24 in La Liga and 4 in 7 in the Champions League. With the Hammers squad being good creatively having someone at the top of the pitch who can put the chances away will be important. The Moroccan out performs his XG comparably to Son Heung-min in the Premier League and has the same number of Champions League goals this season as Lionel Messi with less expected goals. Combining this with having more pressures and more ariel duel won per 90 than Antonio, shows he is more than a finisher and is a team player like Michail. I think he’ll cost a similar amount or less than Tammy Abraham but has better numbers in both their respective leagues and the Champions League.
The final piece is Jesse Lingard. Since he’s gone to West Ham he’s shown he hasn’t lost a step despite having not played in so long. His contributions have made this side even more of a worry to the other teams in the race for top 4 than they were before. The upper estimate for the players I’ve suggested would be £56 million. With Manchester United refusing to add a clause to allow him to be bought for a set price, West Ham will have to negotiate a fee for the English attacking midfielder in the summer and the better Jesse does, the more he’ll cost. I can’t see West Ham being able to afford the fee to sign him while also strengthening in more important areas. On top of that are his wages, with this likely being Lingard’s last move he won’t want to reduce his wages and also want a decent length to his contract. Despite how much the manager, players and fans would love to see the loan become a permanent signing, financially it will take compromises from the Red Devils and I don’t see that happening. If I were a betting man, I put my money on Lingard moving to Leicester City. For the depth in Maddison’s position and it being the position the Foxes will likely focus on strengthening compared to West Ham who have depth in that position and with a good striker, may not need his goals.
Commentaires