This is a fixture between two defensive set piece specialists this season. With one also being one of the best attacking from dead balls. West Ham’s aerial presence combined with one unobvious fault in Manchester City defensively ability may be the key to stopping this record breaking run.
The key? Fouls leading to goals. City concede the least fouls leading to shots, but are 7th in fouls leading to goals. Combining this with having the best defensive record from dead balls, shows this poor ratio comes from opportunities coming indirectly from fouls. Every 3.2 fouls that lead to a shot, result in a goal. The 2nd worst ratio behind Brighton (3.0). Adding the fact City have conceded the 2nd least fouls this season shows a free kick against Man City, is a precious opportunity. Bowen and Antonio are West Ham’s most fouled players per 90. If they play as a front 2 and try and collect fouls on the counter, West Ham may be able to utilise this chink in City’s armour.
Relying on City fouling players in useful areas can’t be the only way West Ham create chances. One of the easiest ways West Ham will be able to create chances is winning corners. If they can take some shots with the aim of winning corners they can utilise one of the most effective parts of their game. Yes, City have a very good defensive record from corners but when the two sides last played, West Ham only won 2 corners. Dias, Stones and Rodri will likely be City’s only plays who can compete aerially with West Ham. Which means if City want all 3 on the pitch, Fernandinho has to be dropped or one of the attacking players will need to be. So, if this time around the Hammers can force more corners, they can create more goal scoring opportunities.
Another way West Ham may be able to utilise corners is with a short corner. Counter intuitive, yes, but hear me out. If City have a poor ratio of fouls indirectly leading to goals, that same principal may be able to be used at the corner flag. Once the ball is in play the defensive structure is harder to maintain. With some well planned short corner routines, West Ham may be able to destabilise City while playing short corners and keep them worrying about them before a direct corner.
Johnson and Fredricks could start with Cresswell and Coufal in the wide areas. On a few occasion this season West Ham have played with 2 full backs on one side. Effectively playing a defensive wide midfielder. Using Fredricks on the right vs Aston Villa to keep Grealish quiet was a great example of this. Grealish had to move centrally where he is less effective normally and then had to battle with Rice and Soucek, one of the best midfield pairings in the league this season. They also account for the lesser pace out wide. City as most people know from watching them like to come in from out wide, and the stats reflect this. City take the most crosses out of any team in the league. Playing 2 full backs on each side will mean the Manchester side will have to either go up against 2 men out wide or try and get through a very tough centre midfield duo. If they do manage to get through one of those avenues, they’ll then be faced with a centre half who’ll throw himself in front of a bus in Craig Dawson.
West Ham have had issues with balls over the top and being countered from their own corners. Johnson and Fredericks will allow for pacey players to cover for the centre halves, who are a great goal scoring presence for West Ham. They can also stay back if West Ham’s top goal creator, Cresswell, moves forward in open play or to take set pieces.
Although West Ham do struggle against the big sides, they rarely fail to fight the top teams. Using these tactics they can take the game to City and increase their chances of nailing the Citizens down.
Kommentare